Commentary

Implied deadlines

The G-8 leaders huddled together and demanded a response to the offer made to the Islamic Republic of Iran concerning their unpopular nuclear enrichment activities. The US has been working hard since the beginning of the year to rally the security council in order to impose sanctions on Iran. The current proposal consists mainly of incentives, and does not mention the “S” word.

The Russians and the Chinese have opposed sanctions from the start, and will probably hold to that position even if the Iranians reject the current G-8 offer. Both countries have an interest in maintaining positive relations with Iran. The Russians have nuclear technology for sale, and the Chinese are voracious consumers of oil and gas (Iran sits on massive reserves of both commodities).

Although the exact details of the proposal have not been made public, it is believed that a chance for discussing regional security issues, western technology (including a light water reactor), the lifting of some sanctions, trade opportunities and US spare parts for Iran’s decrepit fleet of civilian airliners are on offer. The authors of the package expect a response by July 5.

The Iranians have offered a mixed response. They defend their nuclear program as the peaceful pursuit of an alternative energy source, and claim the right to pursue uranium enrichment, while describing the proposal as positive, leaving open the possibility for a partial suspension of enrichment activities. The Iranians also feel that there are ambiguities in the language of the offer, and therefore cannot respond until after further clarification is made. This will result in a response late in the month of August, several weeks after the G-8 summit.

There are a few problems with this situation. The first is Iran’s reluctance to respond in a timely manner, the second is the likelihood of only a partial halt to enrichment activities. As far as the G-8 is concerned, the US is demanding a complete stop to enrichment, and Russia and China will not push for sanctions against Iran if talks break down.

Overall, the fact that the US has engaged in a dialogue with Iran and the other G-8 nations is a positive development. Another important fact to consider is Iran’s desperate need for foreign investment to expand their oil and gas exporting capacity, and to fund economic infrastructure development.

Every nation involved has something to gain in resolving this standoff peacefully, and in turn, very much to lose if this process is not pushed forward.

© 2006 Splendid Marbles.