Commentary

Another Divide

President Jacques Chiraq of France implied on Monday that Iran would not
have to halt nuclear activities until negotiations with the Security Council
started. This revelation surfaced during an interview on a European radio
station.

The official position of the six powers (the permanent members of the Security
Council + Germany) is that Iran must freeze uranium enrichment before any
discussions can take place.

Mr. Chiraq is the first leader to state that a halt is not necessarily a pre-
condition for negotiations. He is also against the imposition of sanctions
on Iran- China and Russia are not very fond of this type of action either.

The original proposal, dating back to June 1, stated that Iran would be offered
a package of incentives for ending enrichment activities. The deadline for a
response passed on August 31. There has been a slight softening by the Bush
administration in dealing with this member of the “Axis of Evil”. With
Washington’s approval, diplomats from the EU and Iran’s chief negotiator
are discussing acceptable conditions for a suspension.

Some Europeans are saying that Chiraq was speaking for them all, and that a
conversation concerning the agenda of the talks could start without Iran’s halt
to its illicit activities. But, the official negotiations would not start until a
verifiable suspension occurred.

Although President Bush has given some ground to his European counterparts,
he feels that the ultimate penalty for Iran, if they do not end their enrichment
program, should be a swift spanking with the sanctions paddle.

Mr. Chiraq’s comments could mean the first cracks in the trans-Atlantic alliance
are forming. With France wavering on the issue of sanctions, and the Bush
administration unlikely to bend much further, it is doubtful that anything meaningful
will come of this prolonged diplomatic waltz. Any sign of a split between France
and the US will likely encourage China and Russia to distance themselves from
supporting sanctions against Iran.

Without unified opposition, the Iranian government will then be free to pursue
their nuclear weapons program. While making room for a brand new arsenal,
they will starve their people of economic and educational opportunities, and
continue to fund terrorist organizations in Lebanon and militias in Iraq. They
truly are a loathsome regime.

The US does not have any realistic military options that could be used to stop Iran,
unless you scour the darkest recesses of Cheney’s mind- and no one really wants
to go there.

It really is tragic that the two most dangerous members of the “Axis of Evil” (Iran
and North Korea) can construct deadly arsenals without fear of US interference.
Without the threat of American military intervention, who else is there to pose a
serious challenge? Although, even without the debacle that is Iraq, and the
unraveling of Afghanistan, it would be very unlikely that the US and its allies
could halt the actions of these nasty nations. The whole key to keeping these
problem governments in line is deterrence. Without the threat of retaliation from
the world’s largest military, there is no incentive for dictators and autocratic theocracies
to act responsibly. Our inability to reign in an insurgency in Iraq is stoking the
fires of civil war, and Afghanistan was never even close to being under coalition
control. These developments have no doubt allowed the two remaining axis
members to sleep more comfortably at night.

The US is overwhelmed by these two conflicts, and this sad development takes
away the serious threat of force against Iran, which is now free to reshape the
Middle East in its own twisted image. North Korea is also operating freely to
deepen the divide between China and the US, and is planting the seeds for an
arms race in the region.

After the first Gulf War, the American military was perceived to be invincible.
Now, as the second Gulf War(Operation Iraqi Freedom, War on Terror Part 2?)
spirals out of control, we are rapidly becoming a nation with a tired and over-
stretched military- and to make matters worse, the US is increasingly dependent
on foreign funds to support its misguided adventures. As the deliberations at
the UN continue with the goal of ending the Iranian government’s plans for a
nuclear arsenal, the US is at its weakest militarily, financially and diplomatically.
The divide that is taking shape between France and the US could easily cause
negotiations to falter, and if this happens, the Iranian theocracy will end up with
the weapons they desire. Without the real threat of military action, there will be
no incentive for them to bow to international pressure. The world will be entering
a dangerous period, Iran and North Korea will become exporters of nuclear
warheads, and the world community will be too divided, and the US too weak,
to stop them.

Greg Strid

© 2006 Splendid Marbles.