Commentary

Assassination streak

This week brought the assassination of Pierre Gemayel, a Lebanese
cabinet minister and fervent opponent of Syrian meddling in Lebanon,
and was met with wide-spread public outrage and international condem-
nation. The first day of official mourning for Mr. Gemayel fell on
Lebanon’s Independence Day, causing the cancellation of the normal
festivities that accompany such an occasion. It is just a little more than
ironic that Lebanon’s Independence Day celebrations were pushed aside
to mourn the death of another politician who fought against the corrosive
influence of foreign interests.

This is the fifth politically motivated murder since the Cedar Revolution
in 2005. This upheaval stemmed from public outrage over the assassination
of Lebanon’s popular Prime Minister, Rafiq al-Hariri. Syria was believed to
be responsible for this incident, and as a result, their troops were removed
from Lebanese soil after a presence that lasted 29 years.

Mr. Gamayel had a wide following, and was on the rise in the conservative
Christian Phalangist party established by his grandfather. He was elected to
parliament for the second time in 2005, and by that time he had gained the
reputation as an uncompromising opponent of Hezbollah and their sponsors
in Damascus.

The latest politically motivated murder comes at a particularly bad time for
Prime Minister Fouad Siniora’s government-he’s Sunni by the way. Six pro-
Syrian ministers allied with Hezbollah-they happen to be Shiite, with one
Christian mixed in for good measure, resigned last week following a failed
effort to increase their power in the cabinet. Another member of the of the
cabinet dropped out as well, bringing the total number of defectors to seven.
The loss of Mr. Gemayel means that the government is one assassination
away from collapse. As it stands, there may not be enough ministers to
authorize new legislation.

A few days after the pro-Hezbollah, Syria-friendly ministers departed the
government, the remaining Sunni, Druse and Christians sanctioned a U.N.
proposal for an international tribunal to bring those responsible for the death
of Prime Minister Harari to justice. Obviously, this move did not receive a
warm reaction from Damascus.

This also seemed to upset Hasan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s supreme leader. He
insisted, from his unelected, but divinely sanctioned post, that the government
in Beirut resign or conduct snap parliamentary elections. Mr. Nasrallah has
been pushing his pawns in the cabinet to grab more power since October, and
had planned highly orchestrated protests that now have to be put on hold.

In July of this year, Nasrallah decided to poke a stick in Israel’s eye by kid-
napping IDF soldiers on Israeli soil in an effort to improve his domestic standing.
What he thought would be a short affair lasted much, much longer- actually, he
started a war. By the end of hostilities, over 1.200 Lebanese civilians were killed,
and billions of dollars worth of damage was inflicted the nation’s infrastructure.
The political payout from this reckless gamble did not pan out. Although he
enjoyed the limelight, it did not last, and he was left without much more influence
in Lebanon’s government after the dust had settled.

Now, after the mysterious, yet professional hit on Gemayel, the Lebanese cabinet
is left gasping for air, deprived of Shiite representation, it is sorely lacking
credibility. One more execution, and the cabinet will have to be dissolved. And
whose needs does this cater to?

Yes, Mr. Nasrallah and his tightly controlled Hezbollah organization stand to have
another go at increasing their power in Lebanon. And if they actually manage to
gain from Lebanon’s latest display of violence, maybe Syria will get their wish in the
form of reduced Lebanese government cooperation with any international invest-
igations.

Who knows what will come of an international tribunal designed to introduce
the rule of law to those responsible for the death of Prime Minister Harari. Even if
the Syrian government or Hezbollah is implicated, they will not respect the verdict.
It will be seen as the work of an illegitimate organization that is merely a front for the
dark forces of Zionism.

The truly disturbing feature in this twisted tale is that whoever did pull the strings
that led to the death of Gemayel may get more than they bargained for. Tensions
are running extremely high on the streets of Lebanon now. Accusations are flying
across the airwaves, the cities are covered with posters that scream for retribution,
and people are preparing for the worst. If the government does collapse, then
Mr. Nasrallah may, once again, get more than he has bargained for. I am sure
that after his complete miscalculation of Israel’s response to the kidnapping that
started a war back in July, his bunker is well stocked.

Greg Strid

© 2006 Splendid Marbles.