Commentary

Trouble on the Horn

Somalia’s transitional government, which was formed, or more accurately,
cobbled together two years ago in Kenya, is finally in power. Their recent
ascendance came with the assistance of the Ethiopian military- and their
arsenal of tanks and helicopter gunships (Ethiopia is America’s closest ally
in the region, and a recipient of the latest in destructive machinery).

Somalia has been without a central government since 1991, a year when a
dictator was overthrown by a gang of warlords, who then battled each
other for control, destroying the capital and much of the surrounding
landscape in the process. The US exited after losing almost twenty
marines in 1993, and the UN bailed out altogether two years later.
Although a government was formed two years ago, they were never able
to exert any real power.

Mogadishu, the nation’s capital, along with other major cities, became
lawless regions. The US believes that those responsible for the 1998
Kenya and Tanzania embassy bombings reside in Somalia, along with
other leaders of Islamic terrorist groups- al Qaeda being the most prominent
among them.

The Islamic fighters, the force that Ethiopian troops routed- were in
control of the capital and large swaths of the country. They are the
military appendage of the Islamic Courts movement, which had been
enforcing a strict moral code in the major cities under their control.

As Ethiopia’s modern, well-trained troops armed with the finest western-
built weapons pummeled the Islamists’ Soviet era relics and fanatical, yet
clueless fighters, it became clear that this would be yet another lopsided fight,
destined to end with a quick, yet questionable victory.

The missiles and tank shells of Ethiopian military rained down on Mogadishu,
causing the Islamists to hide among the civilian population, shaving their beards
and shedding their uniforms as their time at the helm disappeared before them.
They have not fled the country, they simply decided to hide among the
civilian population. By some estimates, the number of Islamic fighters in
the vicinity of the capital is as high as 3,500.

Kenyan officials have apprehended some of the Islamic Courts movement’s
financiers trying to cross the border with suitcases filled with cash- I guess
they were planning to send for their Korans later. Most of their leadership
simply fled the capitol altogether, choosing to move south along the coast, to
the city of Kismayoo, vowing to continue the fight against the infidels.

It is important to mention that the force behind the U.N.-backed transitional
government, Ethiopia, is a Christian-ruled country, so the clash of religions
has a new front. And Somalia is just the most recent war to turn hot. Nigeria
has a large population that is divided between Christians and Muslims- with a
Christian at the helm for now- a presidential election is scheduled for April. It
is a major supplier of energy to the US, and it does not resemble a stable nation
on the best of days. Any meltdown in such a resource-rich nation would
probably require a more direct intervention by American forces.

The Ethiopians attacked due to the fear of Islamic fundamentalism spreading
across its border. Islamic fighters had advanced to the fringes of Baidoa,
the only stronghold of Somalia’s transitional government, and evidently too
close to Ethiopian territory. The last thirty years have been marked by many
border clashes and one full-scale war. Over the past few months, protesters in
Somalia have burned Ethiopian flags as the chances for an armed confrontation
increased.

The US has not objected to Ethiopia’s exercise in preemption, given the fact that
Mogadishu is a hotspot for the terrorist set. The US benefits by allowing
Ethiopia to act in its national security interests, targeting Islamic fundamentalism
and the terrorist organizations that they sponsor and shelter.

The vacuum created by Ethiopia’s lightning victory over their Islamic enemy has
stoked the flames of chaos in Mogadishu. The warlords who were ousted
by the Islamic Courts movement are already plying their trade, reintroducing
violence, intimidation and extortion to Somalia’s scarred and weary population.

This military action has a good deal in common with America’s operations in
Afghanistan and Iraq. In both of these operations, small, yet technologically
advanced military forces seemed to overwhelm their enemies with ease. The
conflicts appeared to be one sided, and they were. The armies that western
nations have created have no competition in the conventional sense, and when
they appear in undeveloped nations, they meet their tactical objectives with
little or no resistance.

Shortly after the victory speeches are made, the hollow nature of their triumph
is exposed. The Ethiopians do not have the capacity to stabilize Somalia. All
they have done is scatter their enemy, and increase the misery, and therefore the
animosity of the Somalis. Instead of dealing a meaningful blow to their enemy,
and increasing security for their slim Christian majority, they will end up mult-
iplying the numbers of those who oppose them, and increasing instability
throughout the Horn of Africa.

Greg Strid

© 2007 Splendid Marbles.