Commentary

The Big Surge

President Bush will address the nation tonight in order to
achieve the lofty goal of garnering support for the big “surge”;
his latest role of the dice that is intended to establish order on
the streets of Baghdad.

Mr. Bush’s new plan calls for an increase of 20,000 U.S. troops
to be deployed in Baghdad for a period lasting six to eight
months. In addition, approximately $1 billion will spent to
bolster the dire employment situation. Renewed political
pressure will be applied to the government of Prime Minister
al-Maliki in order to quell the sectarian divisions that have
crippled his administration.

It is odd that just over two months since the midterm elections,
Mr. Bush has made a complete shift in attitude toward the
acceptance of outside opinion regarding how to reverse the
deteriorating conditions in Iraq.

The elections proved to be a referendum on the Bush administ-
ration’s mangled approach to the war in Iraq, and the Republican
Congress that acted as co-conspirator- as opposed to an equal and
independent branch of government. Public support for the war has
been eroding steadily over the past year, and the election results
should have sent the president a clear message that “stay the course”
would no longer be an acceptable policy.

Right after the election, Mr. Bush seemed to be “all-ears”- and
not just in appearance. He fired Defense Secretary Rumsfeld just
two days after the election- just a week after he had lavished him
with praise and affection. The Iraq Study Group was due to
release its findings, and the president acted like a child about to
receive an advanced, autographed copy of a Harry Potter novel.

The Iraq Study Group’s recommendations were eagerly awaited,
yet shortly after their release they were met with negative adjectives,
such as “impractical”, and “unrealistic”. The Iraq Study Group
made several suggestions that were non-starters for those huddled
in the White House. Opening a dialogue with Iran and Syria was
dead on arrival, as was the goal of withdrawing most combat troops
by early 2008.

By the middle of December, Bush had rejected the public’s
mandate, ignored the Iraq Study Group, and forged ahead with a new
plan crafted by Frederick W. Kagan of the American Enterprise
Institute-cheerleading camp for the global spread of democracy, and
retired Army General Jack Keane. They recommended deploying
a substantial number of additional troops in order to increase security.
This is how the “surge” was given life.

The new plan that Mr. Bush will discuss tonight is being criticized
by those still serving in the military- they say it could provide more
targets for the insurgents, would draw in more foreign fighters,
and that a timetable(6-8 months) for the operation would cause
some armed factions to wait quietly until the additional troops left
town.

Prime Minister Al-Maliki never requested more troops when he met
with Mr. Bush in November. The Iraqi government wanted to take a
more active security role, and lower the US presence on the streets
of Baghdad.

Even staunch supporters of the war are not pleased. Senator John
McCain believes that the increase in the number of troops is way too
small to make an impact.

The Democrats, Speaker Pelosi being the most prominent among
them, are against this “surge”. They have taken to calling it an
“escalation”, and promise to scrutinize all Iraq-related budgetary
requests.

The problem with the president’s plan for Iraq lies more in his approach
than in the details. During the run-up to the invasion, the advice
of seasoned military personnel was ignored, and diplomacy was shunned.
Once again, Mr. Bush has decided to ignore the counsel of generals,
and he has dismissed the recommendations of the Iraq Study Group,
and the wishes of the Iraqi government. He is also setting the stage
for a major battle with the new congressional majority.

If Mr. Bush is truly concerned with turning around the mess he created,
he will need the support of the military, congress, and the American
people. This will require bold initiatives, such as reaching out to Iraq’s
neighbors in order to secure the borders and to stem the flow of money
and weapons to the militias. Unfortunately, it does not appear that he
has learned anything from the four years of escalating chaos in Iraq, and the
drubbing his party received at the polls last November. A complete break
with past behavior is required at this critical moment- but it seems that the
“Decider” has chosen to avoid such a drastic move.

Greg Strid

© 2007 Splendid Marbles.